For non-perishable things, age predicts survival — what has lasted a century will likely outlast what launched last year.
Useful as a filter for what to read and dangerous as a filter for what to believe — plenty of durable ideas are durable because they are comforting.
Links
Typed edges. Anything below the line was authored on the other note and derived here.
supports →Robust survives shocks; antifragile gains from them — so ask not whether a thing will break but which way volatility moves it.Survival through repeated volatility is the observable signature of antifragility. Lindy is how you detect it from outside, without a theory of the mechanism.