investing
6 sources · 13 notes on this topic.
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
The revolutionary idea that separates modern times from the past is the mastery of risk — the notion that the future is more than a whim of the gods.
Fooled by Randomness
Mistaking luck for skill is the default human operation, and the market pays people handsomely for it right up until it doesn't.
Poor Charlie's Almanack
Assemble a latticework of models from every major discipline, then solve problems backwards — because avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.
The Psychology of Money
Doing well with money has little to do with what you know and almost everything to do with how you behave.
The Intelligent Investor
Investing is not about beating the market — it is about not being talked out of your own analysis by a manic man quoting you prices.
Ways to Think About Token Pricing
Every dynamic we can currently see points toward foundation models becoming low-margin commodity infrastructure — and nobody can yet prove otherwise.
Ideas
13 notesCombine extreme safety with extreme risk and refuse the middle: floor the downside absolutely, leave the upside open.#barbell-strategy
✦Every path away from foundation models becoming commodity infrastructure requires something to change; commoditisation is the default.#commodity-or-monopoly
✦A small chance of ruin is not a small risk — once you are out of the sequence, the expected value you would have collected goes with you.#ergodicity-and-ruin
✦An investment promises safety of principal and an adequate return after thorough analysis; everything else is speculation wearing a suit.#investment-vs-speculation
✦Buy far enough below your estimate of value that being materially wrong about the estimate still leaves you whole.#margin-of-safety
✦The market is a manic partner quoting you a price daily — you are never obliged to trade, only to decide whether the quote is useful.#mr-market
✦Regression to the mean is real but useless as a timing device — knowing the average pulls you back says nothing about when.#regression-is-not-destiny
✦Margin of safety exists so that survival never depends on your forecast being right.#room-for-error
✦A tiny number of events produce most of the outcome — so most of what you do is supposed to not matter.#tails-drive-everything
✦Investing success is a matter of temperament rather than IQ — the binding constraint is behavioural, not analytical.#temperament-over-intellect
✦Compounding rewards duration far more than rate — the dominant variable is how long you leave it alone.#time-is-the-lever
✦Given enough participants, spectacular track records appear by chance alone — success is evidence of skill only after you count the entrants.#track-records-are-noisy
✦An industry can be enormous, essential, and capital-destroying at once — mobile data grew orders of magnitude while the stocks went nowhere.#value-moves-up-the-stack