Automation ROI follows a power law — automate the constraint, not whatever is easiest to automate.
The accompanying arithmetic — time saved × frequency × five years, against build cost — is explicitly a floor. It ignores context-switching, error rates at 2am, and the fact that each automation makes the next cheaper.
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Typed edges. Anything below the line was authored on the other note and derived here.
example-of →Output is effort times a multiplier — and effort is bounded by biology while the multiplier is not.A concrete rule for where to apply the multiplier. Most automation effort goes where it is convenient, which multiplies something that was never limiting the output.