When the reference class does not exist yet, ask which outcome is the default and what would have to change to get another.
The most transferable thing in the piece. It is how to reason about a genuinely undetermined situation without either forecasting falsely or shrugging.
Links
Typed edges. Anything below the line was authored on the other note and derived here.
extends →Probability theory works on repeatable events; the decisions that matter most are usually one-offs it was never built for.A practical method for the unmeasurable case Bernstein identifies and leaves there. Instead of a distribution you cannot compute, produce a default plus an enumerated list of falsifiers.