Some domains are bounded and some are scalable — using bell-curve intuitions in the second is the central error of modern risk management.
The most useful single distinction I have taken from any of these books. Add the tallest person alive to a sample of a thousand and nothing moves; add the richest and the average is now meaningless.
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Typed edges. Anything below the line was authored on the other note and derived here.
prerequisite-of →History is driven by a few unpredictable outliers that we explain confidently only after they happen.Outliers can only dominate where the quantity is scalable. In a bounded domain there are no black swans, only surprises of limited size.
← supported byReal uncertainty is not a casino — dice have known odds, life does not, and models built on games mislead exactly where it matters.
Games are Mediocristan by design — bounded, specified, repeatable. Training your intuitions there prepares you for the only domain that was never the problem.