Quantifying a risk changes how it feels, not how likely it is — the number’s real work is often psychological.
Worth asking of any risk figure you rely on: is this changing my decision, or only my comfort with a decision I had already made?
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Typed edges. Anything below the line was authored on the other note and derived here.
supports →Real uncertainty is not a casino — dice have known odds, life does not, and models built on games mislead exactly where it matters.Explains the mechanism behind the fallacy: precision is emotionally satisfying, so a model that produces sharp numbers gets trusted past the boundary where its assumptions hold.