Every path away from foundation models becoming commodity infrastructure requires something to change; commoditisation is the default.
A stronger claim than a forecast, and structured so it can be watched: name the mechanisms that would have to appear — network effects, durable differentiation, products that need no wrapping — and check whether any does.
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← supported byAn industry can be enormous, essential, and capital-destroying at once — mobile data grew orders of magnitude while the stocks went nowhere.
The concrete precedent for the default case: a trillion in revenue, $200bn of capex, and all the value captured by people further up the stack. Essential and profitable are independent properties.