Regression to the mean is real but useless as a timing device — knowing the average pulls you back says nothing about when.
Galton found the pattern and it has ruined more people than it has helped, because being right about direction and wrong about duration is indistinguishable from being wrong.
Links
Typed edges. Anything below the line was authored on the other note and derived here.
prerequisite-of →Buy far enough below your estimate of value that being materially wrong about the estimate still leaves you whole.The reason a buffer is needed rather than a forecast. If reversion were schedulable you would simply wait for it; because it is not, you have to survive an unknown interval.